Liverpool Summer 2012 Transfer Review

Now that the transfer window has closed for another four months, lets take a look at Liverpool’s dealings. Regular readers will know I tend to focus on the positive, but hopefully the below provides a balanced view on the various deals that have taken place at Anfield this summer.

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Will Meireles Be Missed?

This article first appeared on The Tomkins Times on 14th September 2011. Statistics sourced from EPLIndex.

The general consensus amongst Liverpool fans around the net seems to be that the sale of Raul Meireles is not a massive loss. Some think it was a mistake to sell him to a direct rival, but will he be missed at Anfield?

Kenny Dalglish does not seem to have taken to him as a player, so he would have likely spent most of this season on the bench. If that assumption is correct, then selling a player who will be 29 in March for a profit seems like a very sensible move.

At the same time, a lot of people thought the Portuguese international did well during his first season in English football. Not least when he scored five goals in six games during the fledgling stages of Liverpool’s revival under Dalglish, including the winner against his now new employers in February (pictured below). But how did his performance last season compare to those of the Reds’ summer purchases for midfield, as well as stalwarts like Gerrard and Lucas?

For an extra point of interest, I have also included Alberto Aquilani’s statistics from 2009/10, to give some context to a midfielder from overseas playing in the Premier League for the Reds for the first time. Where appropriate I have included the figures for the Liverpool team as a whole last season too.

Throughout this study, it’s important to remember that whilst all of the players are midfielders, they will obviously be performing different roles within that general position. Firstly, a look at the accuracy of their shooting:

Raul may not have had shots as frequently as some of his rivals, but he was way ahead with his accuracy. Although Charlie Adam was the most frequent with his shooting, his regular penalty and free-kick exploits will have helped a fair bit on that front.

Whilst shooting is important, a key role of most midfielders is to create chances for their team mates. Here’s a look at who did so most regularly:

As I’ve mentioned on here previously, credit here has to go to Steven Gerrard; most of his time last season was spent in the static midfield of Roy Hodgson’s team (he only made five appearances under Dalglish), and yet he created a chance for a team-mate more regularly than any of the other players studied here.

Whilst I have included the players’ chance conversion rate above, this obviously won’t be entirely down to the midfielders themselves. That said, it is interesting to note that of the seven chances Alberto Aquilani created, all but one of them resulted in goals.

Yes, one of his assists famously came off his back after he slipped over during Liverpool’s 4-0 win at Burnley in 2010, but it would be fair to say he had decent success at setting up his colleagues (albeit a little infrequently). Will Aquilani be missed I wonder…

One potential way to create chances is crossing. With Andy Carroll brought on board at great expense, it was widely assumed that this aspect of play could have a massive bearing on Liverpool’s tactics this season. How do the players compare in this regard?

The Portuguese man leads the way here, though the three new signings all rate higher than the average for the team as a whole, so presumably Dalglish and Comolli considered this stat not significant enough to warrant keeping Meireles on board.

One big criticism of Liverpool’s one-season-wonders Aquilani and Meireles was that they would frequently avoid tackles, to the detriment of the team defensively. How often did they attempt tackles?

They both rank surprisingly well on this front, though of course there are sadly no recorded stats for ‘tackles wimped out of”. Aquilani was perhaps unsurprisingly the least effective tackler, with Charlie Adam perhaps equally surprisingly being the most successful.

I could point out that Meireles had the highest success rate of the Liverpool midfielders of last season, but you may have seen an article on The Anfield Wrap suggesting that stats such as that are a waste of time. Perish the thought!

As well as tackling, a similar measure is that of the possession duel and/or aerial duel. In other words, a 50/50 on the ground or in the air. I would’ve thought the now-former Liverpool player wouldn’t have been too involved in this respect.

He may have had the second highest success rate, but clearly he attempted duels a lot less regularly than his colleagues. I’m sure a lot of Liverpool fans would point out that he was regularly successful due to avoiding a fair amount that he was likely to lose, or potentially get hurt contesting.

Meireles did spend some time in wide midfield, so of course it’s logical to see that central players like Lucas and Adam lead the way here. Kudos to the Brazilian for being involved in duels most regularly and winning the highest percentage.

How about passing? Midfielders are in the position that do the most of it, so who was most successful?

Probably no surprise to see Lucas top this list. Charlie Adam is perhaps a little unlucky to finish bottom here, as he was playing alongside a lower quality of player; whilst it’s early days for him at Anfield, playing with better players who are more likely to be on his wavelength has seen his passing accuracy rise to 76% in the league so far this season.

All players give the ball away; it’s inevitable. The less frequently it occurs, be it via a misplaced pass or a poor touch, is obviously important though. I have not included Aquilani here, as unfortunately the loss of possession statistics are not available for 2009/10.

Meireles doesn’t do so well here, but then neither do Gerrard or Adam; the more you try to play a key pass, then the more likely you’ll give the ball away.

To try and determine how Meireles fared overall against the other players, I have awarded points relating to their rankings in the different disciplines, and here’s how they all fared:

Step forward Raul Meireles, midfielder of the year.

Okay, clearly he wasn’t really, but it is interesting to see that averaging the different scores puts him top. If ever you wanted to see what Lucas brings to the table via stats, here it is; bottom in all of the creative aspects, and top of the bread-and-butter aspects of the game.

Will Meireles be missed? Only time will truly tell; I think Chelsea have got themselves a decent player for a reasonable fee, but then I thought they had got an excellent player at a fair fee with Torres, and look how that has gone so far.

Ultimately, selling a player who wanted to leave and making a profit on him, and getting rid of a player who will have little or no resale value when he next moves on is a logical business move. Let’s hope it proves a logical football move too.

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

Is Charlie Adam The Right Man For Liverpool?

The longest running (and therefore dullest) transfer story of the past six months or so has been the likely transfer of Charlie Adam from Blackpool to Liverpool.

But is he the right man for Liverpool?

Liverpool are crying out for a left footed midfielder. The passing statistics for last season (which will be covered in much greater depth in a future post) illustrated that the Reds passed the ball to the right wing significantly more than they did to the left. This lop-sidedness was presumably down to a dearth of options for left midfield.

Charlie Adam (who will be 26 in December) scored 12 goals in the Premier League last season, all with his left foot, so it’s safe to say he fits the bill on that front at least.

I have recently looked at the top chance creators in the Premier League last season (see here for more info), of which Adam is one. As an additional study, I have looked at the top ten players for key passes, and what percentage of their passes this constitutes:

Name             Chances     Passes       Passes Per Chance

Malouda            113           1661                  14.70

Young                 68            1141                   16.78

Brunt                   77            1365                   17.73

Downing              78            1487                   19.06

Davies                 86            1661                    19.31

Henderson          78           1643                    21.06

Barton                 72           1617                      22.46

Silva                    66             1552                   23.52

Adam                  64             1883                    29.42

Modric                64             2001                  31.27

Adam was 9th on the list of chance creators, and maintains that placing for this measure too. Ashley Young is the big mover here, going from 7th in the table of key passes to 2nd here, so it looks like United may have bagged themselves a good deal. See here for a closer look at the merits of Young and Downing.

Of course, with this kind of thing ‘it takes two to tango’. By playing with a lower standard of players, Adam may be on a different wavelength than his colleagues, and so a failed pass may not entirely be his fault.

How does he compare to the top ten chance creators on passing accuracy?

Name              Passes        Pass Completed        % success

Silva                  1552                  1334                      85.95%

Modric             2001                   1717                      85.81%

Malouda           1661                   1305                    78.57%

Henderson      1643                   1279                      77.85%

Downing           1487                  1074                      72.23%

Brunt               1365                    980                       71.79%

Barton             1617                    1128                       69.76%

Adam              1883                     1311                      69.62%

Young             1141                       741                       64.94%

Davies            1661                        915                       55.09%

Again, a fairly lowly placing for the Scotsman, though again, the fact he played with effectively Championship quality players could easily be used to defend him.

The thing that struck me when looking at the above information is that West Bromwich Albion’s Chris Brunt is ahead of him on both charts.

In his Premiership career (across two seasons), Brunt has scored 12 goals, 11 of which were left footed strikes and one header. He would therefore appear to fulfill the ‘left footed midfielder required’ criteria.

He will have played with a similar standard of player as Adam, and yet has out performed him on these two measures.

It’s interesting to note how he also outperformed other Liverpool targets and transfers (such as Henderson and Downing) on the passes per chance ratio.

Turning 27 in December may put him outside FSG’s targeted age bracket, but I would imagine he would be cheaper than Adam, and not a huge expense that requires a decent sell-on value for it to be good business.

Whether or not former Liverpool manager Roy Hodgson would want to sell one of his top players to the Anfield club could of course be a major stumbling block.

But if the Adam transfer saga drags on much longer, I think Liverpool could do a lot worse than try for Brunt instead.

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.